2319 children and adults were involved in the study. 784 tested positive for flu.
29% of those who had been vaccinated tested positive, vs. 50% of those who tested negative.
This sounds good but it’s not a 61% effectiveness rate; the difference is 21%. They get 61% by dividing 29/50, which just doesn’t make sense. You decrease your risk from 50% to 29% … roughly from a half to just under a third.
Further, of those who had not been vaccinated, there’s only a 50-50 chance of getting the flu.
A stock photo with the article shows a youngish man in a hospital bed with an IV and breathing tube. There’s no claim that this man suffers from flu.
But the truth is, your risk drops from 50% (not vaccinated) to 29% (if vaccinated). That’s roughly from a half to just under a third. Not at all the same thing. And it’s not known how these findings translate to larger populations. In fact, from everything I can tell, this population is self-selected; there may be a self-selection difference between those who chose to get vaccinated and those who didn’t.
Shoofoolatte is right. There are a lot of misconceptions about early detection. Mammograms are likely to miss invasive cancers because those cancers grow so fast they can become deadly between screenings. They’re more likely to catch cancers that rarely become fatal. See http://youtu.be/C-DnznA0m9k by Dartmouth physician/professor Gilbert Welch:
He also notes that comparing survival rates can be misleading. Survival rates will always seem higher in a screened population even when the actual death rate is not changed:
What IS true is that it’s easy to get mammograms and they’re often free, especially if you have time to make an appointment. In many health systems – including HMOs – the doctors are so busy recommending unnecessary “preventive” medicine – with no evidence of positive outcome – that they have no time to see people with urgent conditions.
Mammograms can give people false security or they can get people into treatment that is useless, expensive and even harmful. The NNT is 2500 – you need to screen 2500 women to save one life. Yet we’re putting millions into mammography and some doctors won’t treat women who refuse, while making it difficult for women to get treated after diagnosis. It would be nice if we had medicine by science, not ideology.
First stand-up: a comedy club I’ll call the Seaweed Lounge. Originally I was going to follow the instructor’s advice – attend one and perform in one. But that afternoon I was talking to someone from my pottery class. She asked what my routine was and I went through it fast. She couldnt help laughing. I decided if I could get there in time and find the sign-up place, I’d do it.
Around 9 PM I get a cab over. It’s a tiny dark place with a steep staircase. There’s a sheet on the counter. One of the young guys there tells me he’s Andrew and he’s been doing this for about two months. He’s a veteran. He explains that we sign up but are not taken in order. Five minutes with the light – the warning – at one minute. He tells me where the other good clubs are; this one is tough, that one is good Oh yes, “Don’t forget to tip the bartender.”
So I order a glass of ice water and give the bartender a dollar. Then I talk to someone else who’s been doing this for two years. He does stand-up almost every day, at a different venue. The evening’s host is a blond woman named Cait. I tell her I’ve never done this before, but I’m in a class with Chip and Mary. She knows them. I ask where’s the light and she asks this guy, “Are you the ight?” As they told us in class, the light is a cell phone they wave up and down to let you know you’ve got just a minute.
Then I take a seat at the bar. Comic after comic goes up. There were just a few when I signed in. Where did they come from? Cait hosts and she seems to know them. A few are pretty good but most are pretty rough; I guess they are trying new material. They do a lot of “fuck” jokes and a lot of detail about the human anatomy. I’m wondering about my own routine which is pretty clean.
I’ve written it out and practiced with the screen capture video program so I’m pretty comfortable with my material. I’m tense but after awhile I just get tired. I want to go on and get it over with. Then tehre’s a break. Then they explain they put people they know on first. Hm…nobody told me! “You can always go home and come another time,” Mike says. No way. I am psyched and I want to go to class and tell Chip and Mary I’ve done it. So I hang in.
Another guy tells me I’m fourth in the second half. I feel a little nervous as I watch the first three and ten the host – a different host for the second set- says, “Give it up for Cathy Goodwin!” I like the sound of that.
I make it up without tripping over the stage and get the mike off the stand. I’m surprisingly comfortable and I get a laugh right away, when I talk about advice for getting old: “It’s not ‘Learn to like drinking tea…” Then I get other laughs with the loudest of course when I demonstrate some good swearing.
I get the light just before the last bit so I cram it in and put the mike back. The host shakes hands. I find my seat. I know it went well. Elise leans over and says, ‘Did you say that was your first time doing this?” I say yes but I’ve had lots of speaking experience. She shakes her head. They are looking at me differently. They even ask if I want a beer but I say I’d fall asleep. They say it’s okay to leave and I decide I’d better.
At the door Cait from the first half shakes my hand. I’m feeling accepted in a new way. I say I’l be back and I know I will. I’m hooked. And when I get home I can’t sleep: it’s been forever since I did something well and got recognized. I see why people hang out at open mikes so they get five minutes air time. It’s a drug.
It’s also midnight. I’ve been gone just 3 hours. And a lifetime.
Al Lewis and Vik Khanna wrote an article for the WSH – Here Comes Obamacare’s ‘Workplace Wellness’ – June 20, 2013 full article here.
The article begins, “During the congressional debate over ObamaCare, few provisions stirred less controversy than an amendment providing incentives for companies to encourage their workers to stay healthy.” The reason there was so little controversy is that it’s not just about Obamacare. It’s a reflection of an established trendm where employers and insurance companies get to play Big Brother and nanny all at once.
As the article points out, these wellness programs don’t work. As the article says, “are ineffective at reducing costs, lack support in medical literature, are unpopular enough to require incentives, and are occasionally even harmful to employees.”
It’s not Obamacare. It’s insurance mythology. When I was am ember of an HMO program with Keystone (a division of the Blues), I kept getting messages about preventive care. “Talk to your doctor about getting a mammogram,” they said. They even told outright lies: Low bone density is “easily treated,” they said. The truth? Mediication reduces the risk of fracture by 3% with tons of horrific side effects.
These tests even har employees. Nebraska sent dozens of employees falsely diagnosed with cancer ” on a painful, emotionally draining, potentially dangerous quest to address what in most cases was a phantom illness—mostly at Nebraska taxpayers’ expense.”
THese employees no doubt incurred copays and other expenses that weren’t reimbursed.
So why do these programs magically claim a savings? My hunch is that they’re getting paid by insurance companies, who may be getting reimbursed by Big Pharma in some way. If more people get diagnosed with high blood pressure or high cholesterol, they’ll be on drugs … even if some doctors have questioned these statistics.
When people are forced to undergo unscientific procedures to avoid paying more, it’s no different than fining people who have a different religion. It’s not clear why doctors aren’t speaking up.
Meanwhile people who really need care have trouble getting help because everybody’s spending all this money on “wellness.” Here in Philly, primary care doctors spend a full hour on medical “exams,” but are booked up months in advance. If you get sick you go to the emergency room or an urgent care clinic where you see strangers.
